Konstantinos Konstantinidis – Amphiktyon
This war will go down in history as Mr. Trump’s war.
- The military cost is high.
The war will evolve into an unconventional one (guerrilla warfare). It will result in military casualties. And the longer it lasts, the more the number of dead and wounded—and the cost—will increase.
This will be difficult for the American people to tolerate. - There is also a significant political cost within the United States.
Approximately 2 out of 3 Americans want the war to end quickly. This means that:
a) a landing or invasion would carry serious political costs
b) it would pressure the government either not to proceed or to withdraw early without achieving its objectives, namely:
(1) regime change
(2) reopening the Strait of Hormuz - The economic cost is enormous.
So far, the war has cost 1–2 billion per day, i.e. over 350 billion.
For a ground operation, the cost would multiply depending on the number of troops involved, its duration, and other unforeseen factors—meaning we would be talking about trillions. - Long-term involvement, similar to Vietnam, both inside and outside populated areas, implies casualties, declining morale, economic burden, and geopolitical decline.
- The replacement of the Army Chief, generals, admirals, and air marshals is a bad omen.
As the Native Americans say: “You don’t change horses in midstream.”
Forecasts
Most assessments converge on the view that a landing is possible but not certain. If it is not used as leverage to achieve a ceasefire, it will be: very difficult, long-lasting, and the U.S. will relive days similar to the Vietnam War—perhaps even worse, as it would bear global responsibility and condemnation for closing the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to the high risk of failure.
If a landing takes place, the U.S. will likely become deeply entangled for a long time. Forecasts suggest that the U.S. will not win the war easily.
China and Russia would be pleased to see the U.S. wear down in the Gulf and might even supply Iran with weapons via Pakistan.
Personal opinion: Only a reckless and irrational president would undertake such an operation. Issues like these are resolved through diplomatic means, not war. (3/4/26)
Amphiktyon A – Retired Major General Konstantinos Konstantinidis
Writer, Member of the Society of Greek Writers
http://www.amphiktyon.blogspot.com
https://www.amphiktyon.org