Konstantinos Konstantinidis – Amphiktyon
The US–Israel war against Iran resembles a closed ballot box whose outcome no one knows — when it will end, how it will end, and what result it will produce.
From the military operations conducted thus far, the following views emerge:
1/ The pre-planned strikes against Iran were carried out successfully, without substantial reaction from Iran.
2/ Two officials of the Islamic Revolution were decapitated, and it remains doubtful whether Ali Khamenei is alive or dead.
3/ Iran responded with missiles and drones against bases of the Gulf sheikhdoms, as well as against Israel.
4/ According to the Iranian Red Crescent, more than 200 dead and 747 wounded were reported.
5/ The military and industrial destruction in Iran is tremendous, and we are still at the beginning.
6/ The Europeans had not been notified, which means that Mr. Trump does not trust Europe as a serious ally.
7/ Although the operation had been scheduled to last only a few days, the American President stated that it would be prolonged.
8/ According to an Iranian announcement, the Strait of Hormuz will be closed within hours to commercial vessels.
9/ Iran’s alleged allies remained indifferent and supported it only with cost-free declarations at the UN.
10/ Turkey opposes military action against Iran. It believes that escalation will cause further instability in the region. It promotes a political resolution of disputes rather than missile/military operations.
Conclusions so far:
A. If the purpose of the war was regime change through the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, then it is doubtful that this has been achieved.
B. A ground invasion inside Iran does not appear, at present, to be part of the US planning, nor does an attempt to abduct Ayatollah Khamenei, as in the case of Maduro in Venezuela.
C. The prolonged presence of one-third of the American offensive forces in the region and their continuous action require maximum expenditure for America and weigh on the morale of the military, without any visible result.
D. Instability in the Middle East region, already unstable, has increased, and no one knows where it will lead, since from now on a diplomatic solution will be difficult. For who would dare, while Khamenei is alive, to go and negotiate?
E. For the time being, the regime remains solid and no cracks have appeared, despite Trump’s call for revolution.
F. Iran will need years to rebuild after the end of this operation, and even if the regime falls, anarchy, chaos and division may arise, as happened in Libya and Iraq.
G. However, unless a favorable outcome for America and Israel emerges and the Strike Force withdraws without having achieved its objectives, Mr. Trump will suffer political decline, because although he began with the aim of bringing peace, he brought wars, and no one knows whether he will ultimately achieve peace in Ukraine.
H. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will increase fuel prices internationally and in the United States, a fact that will harm Mr. Trump’s election campaign.
General Conclusion:
So far, the general objective of the war has not been achieved as long as the theocratic regime governs Iran (28/2/26).
Amphiktyon – Major General (ret.) Konstantinos Konstantinidis
Author, Member of the Hellenic Society of Writers
http://www.amphiktyon.blogspot.com
amphiktyon.org