WHERE IS ISRAEL GOING?
Written by Konstantinos Konstantinidis Amphiktyon According to the theorist of War Clausewitz “war is politics by other means” Therefore war is an act of violence, to compel the adversary to carry out the will of the adversary” War is not an end in itself simply to destroy the adversary , but it aims to put you in a more advantageous position to achieve your goals at the diplomatic peace table. If this is how things are, Israel has so far stated that its purpose is:1/ To destroy Hamas and erase it from the map, which it already did with the leveling of Gaza and the killing of approximately 50,000 Palestinians, Hamas fighters and most civilians, but without erasing it from the map and is still under fire2/ To destroy Hezbollah from its northern borders. It is doing this today by invading South Lebanon with ground forces and destroying Hezbollah strongholds in order to create a safe zone for its northern settlements. To this end, it has been involved in hand-to-hand combat in South Lebanon, while with its Air Force it is attacking the “octopus” of Iran, i.e.: a/ Hamas in Gaza, b/ Hezbollah in Lebanon, c/ the Militia in Syria d/ the Militia in Iraq and/or the Militia of the West. Okhtis and v/ the Houthis of Yemen. So far it has not achieved its military objective of eliminating Hezbollah because even now it is under fire.Israel is planning the big strike on Iran in retaliation for the latter’s counter strike against it with ballistic missiles. The planning is still ongoing because the US disagrees not with the strike, of course, but with the targets that will be hit. The far-right in Israel’s war council want to give Iran a free shot, i.e. make it safe for future strikes. That means hitting Iran’s nuclear facilities. but which are invulnerable and safe deep within mountain ranges. Therefore, in order to be hurt, they must use the most powerful weapons systems, even nuclear or thermobaric munitions, which America strongly disagrees with now even in the run-up to the presidential elections, because this can trigger a wider war. Other targets are oil facilities, airports, weapons sites, industries, communications and control centers, headquarters, leading figures, etc., Because of the dispute, Israel is delaying the offensiveIf the perception of far-right Israel prevails, then there will be a stronger retaliation from Iran and the war will dangerously escalate into a Regional War, with the use of nuclear weapons no longer excluded. Given that Israel and Iran are two countries that act as advanced outposts of the US on the one hand and China and Russia on the other, their action risks involving the world’s powerful nuclear powers, with what this implies for the future of humanity and culture.Israel’s military goals do not seem to have been achieved. The West’s geopolitical and economic goals are also unclear after the failure of the “Abraham Accords” The war is already in its second year without international moral support due to the huge losses of civilians and UN representatives , but also due to a reaction on the part of Israeli public opinion due to the abandonment of the hostages to their fate. All indications are that Israel has fallen into a military stalemate at a huge cost in blood money and morale, and this is affecting the pre-election battle for the White House.The US intends to make Israel a hub in the supply axis that starts from India through the Arab countries of the Gulf and from there by road to Israel through the Mediterranean to Europe.This axis comes to obstruct China’s double supply axis (silk road) with its hub in Iran and through Turkey to Europe on the one hand and the sea route which leads to Europe through the Red Sea through the Suez Canal.The war in the Middle East is delaying the land Silk Road through Turkey for reasons that we cannot now explain, but at the same time it has also diverted the sea axis through the Suez Canal, due to the action of the Houthis, forcing ships to make the around Africa and raise the cost of the products, but also of the oil of the Arab states. The Geopolitical game is at its core Economic and so complex that no one can say with certainty what is at stake for each of the major players China and the US. We see the two pawns: Iran and Israel at war and the victims are the Arab population of Lebanon, the Palestinians of Gaza and the people of Israel.Iran is a strong bridgehead of China that can even close the Straits of Hormuz with mines and prohibit the entry and exit of ships to the Gulf with what this implies for the oil producing countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE etc.) and the jump in the price of oil Already the threat of the Houthis against the ships in the Gulf of Aden and in the Red Sea is also affecting Egypt with the reduction of the ships passing through the Suez Canal making it expensive to supply the West by diverting the ships, through the Cape of Good Hope. This temporarily benefits the Greek liner shipping because it raises the fares but also the insurance of the ships. If Israel and Iran engage in a regional war the risks are great because this war could ignite a world war that will mean the end of the world as we know it today. Therefore we hope that the powerful powers of the planet will show restraint and find a peaceful solution to their geopolitical and economic stake. We the common people of the whole earth must strengthen our will for Cooperation. and Peace
- Amphiktyon is Lieutenant General Konstantinos Konstantinidis
Writer, Member of the Society of Greek Writers
amphiktyon@gmail.com
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